The Specific Evidence Rule. Reference Classes – Individuals – Personal Autonomy

This paper grapples with the issue of naked statistical evidence in general and reference class problem (RCP) particular. By analysing reasoning patterns underlying RCP, I will show, first, that RCP rests on theoretical presuppositions which we are by no means willing to accept. Such a presupposition is wholesale approach decision-making. Secondly, show very effort increase level precision maximum so contains single member only theoretically inconsistent insofar, as it deprives classes their (and thus scientific) character. Thereupon, argue, thirdly, decision enact specific rule political one reflects deep moral jurisprudential values, not scientific propositions. value personal autonomy, go illuminate briefly. Whether trier fact treat cases or depends constitutional arrangements legal values putting emphasis individual latter’s dignity.